by admin

Question : have credit ratings agencies have been downgrading triple A collateralised tranches? Credit agencies have definitely been downgrading AAA tranches, in some instances all the way to junk. See the WSJ article below (from November 10). The follow up question is whether some overall downgrades for important companies are coming. I believe Citigroup’s triple [...]

by admin

It’s amazing how big the US market moves have been since I changed sentiment as the US hit the 10% correction level. It would be easy to claim that my mood shift has been vindicated, but we are not out of the woods yet. Expect more drops to come.Strong Buying. Perhaps the most important news [...]

by admin

US equities were down more than 10% at one stage in the first round of the credit crunch. However, they rallied back so hard intraday that they never closed out close to that level. Finally, on Monday, markets broke through and closed over night more than 10% below their peak – the technical definition of [...]

by Markus

Some thoughts and conclusions about the global private equity market. The market for LBOs is dominated by the worldwide largest banks. As they were and are the only ones to finance the big LBO transactions. Hence the group of banks struggling with the tighter credit market is a limited one – and these banks are [...]

by admin

Interesting oil trade that started this morning: Short near-dated crude contracts ahead of the OPEC meeting (Dec 5), switch back and go long thereafter.Rationale – Oil prices are fundamentally too high, these levels are already impacting demand, a clear sign that a correction is coming. They are also high enough to worry OPEC, which has [...]

by admin

The EUR is strong, the USD is weak and the Yuan undervalued. The world of currencies is full of platitudes. Of course it´s more complex than that. Deutsche-Bank-Strategist Bilal Hafeez is adding some views on the global currency markets: 1. Carry Trades are a more secure investment vehicle than stocks: it´s difficult to believe, but [...]

by Markus

Interesting interview with the MAN CEO. Peter Clarke, chief executive of Man Group, predicts that the historic 5% to 7% hedge fund attrition rate could double. In a video interview with the Financial Times, Clarke expected a quiet withering of under performing funds in the industry rather than a spate of blow ups. If his [...]

by admin

It is a high volatility week in the US, where price movements are being exaggerated by lighter volumes associated with the Thanksgiving holiday. I am relatively bullish on the US economy, but in the short-term the US equity market is a particularly tough call.Emerging Markets are experiencing something quite unusual – low beta downside during [...]