by admin

Determining asset allocation for 2008 is not simple. The decline of global liquidity is widely acknowledged as a key contributor in the credit crisis that began in the summer. However, as the chart below shows, declining liquidity has yet to show itself in the form of sharply declining prices of liquid assets. Treasury prices have [...]

by Markus

There was a one hour interview on CNBC with Warren Buffett. Here are some very interesting aspects of his life: 1. He bought his first share of stock at age 11 and he now regrets that he started too late 2. He bought a small farm at age 14 with savings from delivering newspapers 3. [...]

by James

Global Stresses Remain High. The global picture will be starkly different in 2008 compared to 2007. The credit crisis, which started as an acute money market shock in the summer, has grown substantially, undermining weak confidence and threatening to deliver an overdue cool-off. Consensus view is that emerging markets will remain unscathed, but it would [...]

by admin

Until recently, it held as law that FX markets were a great place to make money because they were so vast and liquid. The dominance of corporations and central banks, who were not motivated by FX profit maximisation, supposedly made FX markets an attractive investment field. A recent FT article (“Dollar slide ‘hit currency managers’”) [...]

by admin

Goldman did what the market was hoping for. It has easily beaten the market´s expectation and posted a new record year in sales and earnings. Two remarks: a) 75% of the quarter´s profit are coming from unexpected investment gains, in other words, from one time profits. It shows that it was a challenging quarter for [...]

by admin

It is reassuring that inflation is quoted as a contributory factor in equities selling-off late last week. To my mind, the threat of inflation overwhelms the risk that the central banks’ liquidity solution is insufficient to fix capital market problems. The central banks never claimed that their new measures were a “cut and paste” solution, [...]

by Markus

Especially for James and his “TechAnalysisPhobia” an update about the break of the mid-term upwards trend of the EURUSD spot rate. Technically we will see a stronger support level at 1,4275

by admin

I´ve heard Warren Buffett saying at CNBC that he has never paid attention to the Fed´s actions regarding his investment decisions. That´s a statement. I share Dino´s opinion that the FOMC decisions are NOT focused exclusively on the US economy. Of course they are having an overweight on that leg, as much as the ECB´s [...]