by Gregory

Everybody seems to agree that the rise in commodities during the last two years has been fuelled by an increasing demand worlwide, and especially in emerging economies. At the same time, supply has stagnated and shows on average almost no growth in 2007. Accordingly, with the increase in demand higher than the supply response, commodities [...]

by James

The market is increasingly predicting that the FOMC will signal a halt in rate cuts at its April meeting this week. Expectations are already bringing the euro down from its high, leading to speculation that the currency markets are also turning. Rate-Cut Halt? The FOMC is expected to hold rates flat or perhaps cut by [...]

by James

Markets have continued rising since we posted on the tactical case for a slowdown. Since Tuesday, the S&P 500 is up another 0.9%, the FTSE 0.3% and Eurostoxx 50 by 0.6%. Perhaps more importantly, the VIX is down 3.9%, and today looks like being another positive day. This doesn’t greatly influence my outlook. As a [...]

by Markus

If I (James) were a more leisurely investor, I’d be even more inclined than usual to “sell in May and go away.” The US market has rallied 9% since March 10, driven by regulatory actions and relatively benign earnings (through April 21, two-thirds of reporting S&P 500 companies surprised positively). This is not to say [...]

by Markus

My previous posts about the hedge fund industry were stating a consolidation in terms of higher risk management requirements, deleveraging and trading skills. In Q1/08 the selection process continued, the industry stalled. Though, in the last few weeks we saw some signs of release. CONTINUING CONCENTRATION PROCESS Hedge Funds in Q1/2008 HFR said today that [...]

by Markus

Today my post doesn´t open with any animal references in the headline. Mineralogy is key (riding the commodity trend until it bursts). Let´s have a closer look on Europe. Inflation concerns, continuously strong German economy, recession fears in Ireland and Spain. German economy German banks got hit by the credit & subprime crisis, especially state [...]

by James

It’s unusual for a Russia-oriented fund manager, but I always feel compelled to communicate freely and independently. As such, I have been critical of government policy, when I have felt it was less than optimal. However, I am not biased – I recognise positive tendencies, too. Russia’s management of natural resources today looks to be [...]

by Gregory

Listening to Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, I was tickled by a question of one congressman: “Are business cycles mostly dependent on liberalism or state intervention?”To me, this question relates to the two most debated questions nowadays: Is the Fed responsible for the current crisis ? Do we need more regulation ? Then, [...]