by James

As oil prices have dropped below key fiscal support levels over the last few months, the outlook for the ruble has become a national concern. The currency rose steadily for five years but reversed course in July. Since then, it has given up most of its gains. After proudly portraying the ruble’s strength as a [...]

by James

It was a bruising week on financial markets, even with a rally of xxx% on Friday. The S&P 500 lost 8.4% on the week, oil came off another 12.5%, and the dollar continued to gain ground, rising 2.3% against the broad basket. Sovereigns put in record lows. With volatility at record levels once more, there [...]

by Gregory

Not too long ago, the resurgence of inflation appeared as public enemy No 1. Then, as the financial crisis unfolded, oil prices above $140, stagflation became a central issue. Now, the new release of the CPI data (down from one percent from the previous month, the sharpest decline ever) is pushing the US economy into a [...]

by Jürgen

Last weekend’s international summit resulted in a mix of comments, ranging from skeptic analysis to hopeful looking forwards: “Challenges rather than solutions.” ,“Everyone gets aligned before the real action”, “Emerging countries, finally”, “Thorny issues left for president elect”.

Either way, the real changes are not yet for now. This explains why, internationally, suffering sectors such as the car manufacturing industry immediately triggered requests for focused governmental actions.

But what is the impact of the (lack of) output of the international summit mean for the energy industry? Are energy problems really issues that can be postponed, or do we need to tackle them in parallel with structural finance measures, exactly as other industries are currently pushing for?

by James

Volatility rebounded during what could easily have been a quieter time last week. Absent major drivers, the markets continued to price in the economic impacts of a total credit freeze. Global equities are beginning to reflect a significant downturn, and prices are beginning to look attractive, short-term risks not withstanding. The S&P 500 lost 6.2% [...]

by James

Driven by strengthening oil prices and fiscal prudence, the ruble steadily appreciated against the dollar for four and half years, until this summer. Much of that time it was criticized as being undervalued, as the central bank logically prioritised exchange rates ahead of inflation in a somewhat futile effort to prevent Dutch disease. The consequence [...]

by Markus

´Creative destruction´ as part of evolution´s cyclical development. The Hedge Fund industry is obviously facing a difficult period, in other words, a necessary consolidation. The MAN CEO is expecting to see industry redemptions of about 25-33% of its AuM. A radical weight-watchers program for a sector of which´s latest manager generation was used to know [...]

by James

US election week proved a turbulent period for the financial markets. A strong rally going into the vote gave way quickly to a sharp period of selling. The Vix Index declined by more than 6% over the week, but spiked close to 60 on Thursday, as the S&P 500 traded in an inter-week range of [...]