by Jürgen

During the pre-New Year’s drinks of the previous weeks, many people ended up talking about the credit crisis. Opinions oscillated somewhere in between “there is a crisis all over the world” and “it seems to be going better lately”. Somehow, people even figured that the Utilities sector will be facing the same tough challenges as the Construction sector next year. To avoid some misunderstandings it is time for a recap about the Utilities.

by James

As Moscow finally freezes over (the snow comes later each year) the country’s annual gas stand-off with Ukraine is heating up. Will the media be full of supply cut stories again as they were in the past? Is Russia right to demand “market prices” or does Ukraine have a point? Ukraine has been at the [...]

by James

We are living one of the most exciting weeks in financial history. Last night the FOMC entered new waters, slashing the target rate to a zero to 0.25% range, effectively we are now living ZIRP. There is nothing more to be done with the key policy rate, so further stimulus will come from quantitative easing. [...]

by Gregory

Before the FOMC decision this evening, we look at the possible outcomes of that meeting, the consequences on the money markets and the future actions of the FED. ZIRP Policy   The probabilities of having 75 bp rate cut have been increasing lately. Yesterday, Fed fund futures pointed to a 76 percent probability at some point during [...]

by James

These are exciting times, this week’s Outlook & Review looks at a fascinating week gone, and one of the most important weeks in this down cycle, starting today. Last week’s flat US market concealed a stressful five sessions. Anyone investor who took a week off might have come back relieved not to have missed anything. [...]

by James

Global markets appear to be sustaining their rally, with US equities up some 20% from their trough as we move into the year-end period. But the uncertainties are still high. Markets are due for some kind of rally, but committing heavily means taking on substantial risk. For its part, the Russian market remains pressured, largely [...]

by Gregory

Back in July (here), MM forecasted that the default rate on subprime could reach 20%, in a “deep recession” scenario with a annual US growth rate of 0.1%, and the unemployment rate equal to 6.5 % in late 2008. While the latest figures stand very close to these estimates, we now look at one’s capability of forecasting [...]

by Markus

Bringing a fresh topic to the MM table, this post is a transcript of a brief email conversation that took place on Dec 10, between James Beadle (JB) and Markus Schuller (MS). The conversation was motivated by a Financial Times article addressing the idea of a global government – article in PDF and-now-for-a-world-government (please click [...]