My optimism about Obama?s potential had been sliding rapidly, but events in Russia this week go a considerable way to reassuring that there is real talent behind his persona. To be clear, his inefficacy in the US still worries. He is giving domestic politicians far too much freedom, and they have far too many vested interests. As a consequence, fiscal discipline is out-the-window, and spending is not working as well as it should. But, foreign policy is beginning to look like a key issue that Obama is getting right, especially in Russia.

We have already seen the humble and respectful Obama visiting European capitals, offering apologies and showing the openness and readiness to change. The US?s popularity is bouncing back fast. Bush?s policies in the War on Terror had a disastrous impact on the US?s image globally, but they did not reflect core US values. Now that the US is again practising the values it preaches, the tide of popularity is turning. This is also visible in Russia.

On his first visit to Moscow, Obama acted confidently and calmly to implement a policy that was both strong and humble, and far more inspiring than I had expected. Without undermining them directly, he reached passed the Russian political elite and put his message out to the broader population. Badly executed, this would have caused waves of political turmoil, but Obama achieved it without shaking his public relationships with Russia?s leaders.

True, the key areas of controversy were probably staged. The week before he visited Russia, Obama took a swipe at PM Putin, saying that he seemed to still have one foot in the old way of doing things. The weekend before his arrival he spoke to the Novaya Gazeta, Russia?s most famous oppositional newspaper. But, neither of these moves caused much trouble, and they took place away from the stages of meetings. As a result, Obama managed to show good relations at the political level, but also to demonstrate that he understands what is happening in Russia.

More important still was his speech to the New Economic University, which was disappointingly kept off the key nationwide state-controlled tv channels. The US authorities billed this as one of a series of key speeches on US foreign policy. As with previous key speeches, notably in Cairo, he reached out to populations alienated by the policies of the Bush administration.

In this speech he indirectly challenged many of the precepts promoted by the existing Russian political elite, which has sought to leverage differences between the US and Russia to strengthen national confidence. This is very positive and will likely be very effective.

Obama is working to directly eliminate the friction between Russia and the US, at all levels. But, what progress was achieved at the political level? Behind the smiles and handshakes, precious little on any of the three key areas of concern:

- Cold war disarmament. The two sides agreed to a non-binding deal to start work on further missile defence. It was the best that could be hoped for at the time, but considering how closely aligned the two parties are on this issue. It is disappointing that more could not be managed. It would be nice to see a rapid acceleration on this area to lay the ground for trust and understanding elsewhere.

- European Missile Defence. The Russians hoped to get some movement here. The fact that Obama had put the missile defence plan on hold was a hopeful sign, the Russians thought. It was interesting was to hear Obama saying that he would like to see Russia and the US aligned, so that Nato ceases to be a threat to Russia. This is far-reaching, but could change the whole field. And it makes practical sense ? with the proviso that Russia?s current political system will always keep it at arms length from full integration.

Importantly, the US continues to tie the cancellation of EMD with the elimination of the threat from Iran. Russia resents this as it understands this was the plan in starting the EMD program in the first place ? it creates a chip for the US to draw Russia?s support. Unfortunately, thus far, Russia has seen Iran as a bigger chip and not been prepared to make the trade. That, hopefully, will change. Russia ought to see more benefit from stopping Iran?s nuclear interests and thus removing the EMD problem too.

At their meetings this week, the two sides agreed to investigate missile threats on a global basis. This is little more than a status quo decision on EMD. Although, properly managed it could open the door for face-saving position changes by either side.

- Former Soviet States. The third key concern is the security and alliances of former Soviet states. Obama did well to launch a new clear policy that sovereignty must be respected, and used the US support for the reinstatement of Zelaya in Honduras to demonstrate that his administration sees democratic sovereign process as trumping its personal interests.

Russia said nothing publicly about its near abroad, but has not shifted its position and will continue to see a privileged interest here. That is a flash point. Ukraine and Georgia will not join Nato until their populations support the idea, and they are institutionally ready. But, the US will not countenance Russia claiming special privilege in the near abroad.

Hopefully, post Georgia, Russia is moving away from its hard power approach to the former Soviet Union, because flashpoints in this sphere threaten the potential for wider political progress. Ukraine?s gas needs in the winter will be a good test of where post Soviet relations now stand.

Who?s In Charge?

Obama has two or three times misquoted Putin?s role, calling him president and then correcting himself. Each time, it looks natural but probably isn?t. Arguably the most interesting part of the Obama visit was his interaction with the two Russian leaders.

Obama seems to have clearly put his support behind Medvedev. It was easy to do as the Russian president says the right things and doesn?t have Putin?s aggressive reputation. But, it was a curious twist. As Russia successfully plays Western nations against each other. So too, it is possible to leverage the dual leadership of Russia.

The media are speculating that Obama has highlighted new tensions between Medvedev and Putin. I would reject that idea. Clearly, Medvedev has begun to differentiate himself, and this could be seen most clearly this week. But, thus far, the power lies with Putin who has responsibility for execution (but continues to wear a Teflon coat). Medvedev?s talk is so far just that. International leaders dealing with Russia would do well to treat Putin with equal credence. He remains as important as his constitutional boss.