by Markus

The PS Commentary is a bi-weekly published, macroeconomic analysis on recent trends in the world economy. Written by Markus Schuller. In this edition, the high probability of a double-dip recession in the US  will be explained. Please click on the link to read the commentary! PS Commentary 19.03.2010 – Dear Bear Market Rally, Happy Birthday! [...]

by Dino

I bet you you’ve heard this question before: are we in a recovery, or is this a bear market rally? If you ask me, I would resort to one of my favorite Keynes quotes: “We simply don’t know.” However, the media are full of pundits who do know. For instance, the totally unbiased Larry Kudlow [...]

by Dino

Buy stocks! Stocks are cheap. Buy now! Stocks for the long run. Equity advertising is a huge industry. Much larger than bond advertising, or hedge fund advertising. How come? Sure, there are also a lot of people advertising cars, or running shoes, or perfumes. The funny thing is, these people would like to sell you [...]

by James

This week we stay on the global theme, given that economic policy news flow from the US remains the dominant market driver. Fresh on the heels of dramatic action by the FOMC last week, Treasury Secretary Geithner this week announced details of his plan to bail out the financial sector. Will it work, and where [...]

by James

A strong, but volatile week. Equities rose again last week and trading volumes increased, strengthening the breadth and depth of the rally. But, these were choppy times. The S&P 500 performed strongly in the first days of the week, including Wednesday, when the FOMC caught the market asleep at the switch. Thursday and Friday it [...]

by James

Last week’s Outlook & Review contained the following comment: “I am going to stick my neck out and predict that we are going to get a bit of positive movement here. … (In) this business there is no such thing as being slightly wrong.” And, when she flies, she really flies. After a depressing session [...]

by Gregory

Did yesterdays rebound mark the start of a new bear market rally? Barry Ritholtz (along with Marc Faber, Doug Kass, Steve Leuthold) thinks so: “There’s a big bear market rally coming,” said Barry. “Equities could rally between here and the end of April,” said Faber. Comparing the current bear with the 1929 crisis, we now [...]

by James

It seemed that we repeatedly sounded our bear horn for weeks, blowing hopelessly against the wind of a naïve bear market rally. At last the US market has come around to our way of thinking (as far as I recall the Melange Team seemed fairly unified on the idea that equities should at least test [...]