by James

Momentum looked strong going into October, and the first full week of the month didn’t disappoint. Economic data continue to warn of the strain in the real world, but risky assets marched forward – cheap money is a great motivator. Alcoa’s results helped out last week, beating due to both cost cutting and higher-than-expected prices. [...]

by James

Summer doldrums finally kicked in with a decline in activity in the last full week of August. Developed world markets held their gains of the previous week, but failed to convincingly build on them. US treasuries firmed too, as did most emerging market equities, although China gave back 3.4%, after having recovered its poise the [...]

by James

Summer’s heating up, and so are the markets. Surely this aggressive optimism will peak soon, and we will resume the “what green-shoots?” downward trend. Only the most optimistic bulls expect the markets to break their trading ranges over the coming month – it may be summertime, but that’s no reason to wear rose tinted spectacles! [...]

by James

Risk remained a negative concept last week, as investors stuck to aversion trades in all major markets. China was the only market that managed to rise, and even there the A-shares only climbed by 0.8%. The global selling was led by commodities. WTI Oil fell 8.75%, closing below the $60/bbl, on a combination of bearish [...]

by James

Markets seemed to hold on pause last week, as central bank activity dominated headlines, but had limited market impact. Equities slopped around, and finally slipped mildly in the absence of clear direction. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and Russia?s RTS fell 5.5%, but Brazil, China and India all rose. The MSCI Emerging Markets index climbed [...]

by James

Commodities and sovereign debt remained volatile last week. US equities managed to rise 0.7% and the dollar rallied back 1% as the bond market fluctuated before closing up. At one point, 10 year bonds sold for more than 4%, and the initial pricing of a 30 year auction on Thursday raised eyebrows. But, things snapped [...]

by James

  Emerging and developed markets again diverged last week, in what was generally another strong period for global risk takers. The two key events of the week excellently illuminate the difference between these two international economic groups: India’s Sensex index soared 14.1% on the week, after the incumbent administration won a clean victory in the [...]

by James

The train roles on. Central banks kept loosening (ECB dropped its refinancing rate to 1% and launched a tentative QE effort, the BOE expanded its QE effort), and the US banks turned out to need $75 bln of new equity under a relatively benign downside scenario. Markets don’t care. The S&P 500 rose an astonishing [...]