by James

My optimism about Obama?s potential had been sliding rapidly, but events in Russia this week go a considerable way to reassuring that there is real talent behind his persona. To be clear, his inefficacy in the US still worries. He is giving domestic politicians far too much freedom, and they have far too many vested [...]

by James

For much of late 2008 and early 2009, market attention was on Russia’s FX reserves as the CBR spent freely to control the descent of the ruble. Thus far, my prediction that the ruble would hold its basket level of 41 is proving true, although I would concede that ultimately the jury is still out. [...]

by James

I’ve been waiting for a while to see this picture… Medvedev is shorter than Putin. He has less of a hang up about it, but anyway, the Russian presidential protocol continues – press are only allowed to photo from upward looking angles. Obama, is of course a basketball player, so the meeting made for an [...]

by James

Includes: Banking sector stability, Political corporate intervention, Telenor-Alfa, Norilsk Nickel, Ukraine Gas, Market Rally Global factors have been driving equities markets for several weeks now. Russia gained stability from stabilising commodities prices, especially oil, and from the surge in hope that the US Treasury would deliver a solid financial sector rescue package. But, local developments [...]

by James

Driven by strengthening oil prices and fiscal prudence, the ruble steadily appreciated against the dollar for four and half years, until this summer. Much of that time it was criticized as being undervalued, as the central bank logically prioritised exchange rates ahead of inflation in a somewhat futile effort to prevent Dutch disease. The consequence [...]

by James

by James

As recently as 1 July, MM described TNK-BP as a “canary in the mine” pointing to a possible rebound in Russia risk. Little did we realise how prescient our choice of language would be. Last week the canary took flight (TNK-BP CEO Bob Dudley left Russia, citing unprecedented harassment) and the miners immediately started falling [...]

by James

Investors across Russia could be excused for missing the controversial economic data that came out on Monday. Unlike its Western counterparts, the State Statistics Service prefers not to preannounce release times. This idiosyncrasy, which is hard to justify in a nation that aspires to become a global financial center, is not usually a problem, since [...]