by Gregory

As regular readers know by now, on the first Friday of each month, I sit still in front of the BLS website waiting 8.30 am ET with excitement. If you followed my posts in the past, you would consider me rather bearish on the job market. With today’s numbers, I must say that I have [...]

by James

A sandstorm in a teacup. Dubai’s leverage and excessive expansion are not new. Hugh Hendry once described Iceland as a worthless rock in the Atlantic, in a similar vein, Dubai has always been a sandcastle (after all, sand is a key ingredient of glass, a popular modern construction material). Not to sound critical – the [...]

by James

Summer doldrums finally kicked in with a decline in activity in the last full week of August. Developed world markets held their gains of the previous week, but failed to convincingly build on them. US treasuries firmed too, as did most emerging market equities, although China gave back 3.4%, after having recovered its poise the [...]

by James

An uneasy calm held over markets for most of the past week, allowing a widespread mild positive move. Debt, equities and commodities all gained ground. In part, the calm may reflect an early start to the summer doldrums, but the US 2Q GDP number – which came out on Friday – and the fact that [...]

by James

Sell in May go away! We hear it every year, but surely, there has rarely been a more tempting case than this year? Against a barrage of negative data, equities put in a storming performance last month, with the S&P 500 rising 9.4%. Slower rates of economic decline are a good thing, apparently. Given the [...]

by James

Exciting times continue, world equities put in a strong performance last Monday, rising on the already thoroughly leaked Treasury plan to provide support to the financial sector. There are reasons a plenty to debate the logic of this rally, but markets spent the rest of the week consolidating that price move. By Friday’s close, the [...]

by James

The misery continues without respite. Market Melange’s regular readers may share our disappointment at the absence of a counter rally since the beginning of the 2009. But equally, they are likely to share, or at least understand, our clarity about the fundamental justification for the sell-off. Given the data flow, the sell-off is entirely logical. [...]

by James

So, equities managed an end of year smile after all. The S&P 500 has risen in five of the last six sessions. On Jan 2, it closed up 6.8% over the week, oil followed suit, rising an impressive 22.9%, ostensibly on the conflict in Gaza. For its part, the dollar took back some of its [...]