by Gregory

Here comes the first Weekly Wrap of this new year. But nothing has changed, this week again, the market‘s still revolved around the Fed and the unemployment numbers. The Fed minutes are always closely watched as it uncovers more details about the last FOMC meeting and then prove more forward looking that the laconic FOMC [...]

by Gregory

The wrap is back with a special focus on the hottest macro theme this month, namely the dollar. This week, the dollar has continued to rally against all major currencies (including the New Zealand kiwi and the aussie). In particular, the greenback hit a 3 month high vis-a-vis the Euro. This week again, several factors [...]

by Gregory

 Liquidity and risk appetite are back around the table, stocks enjoy the free lunch and the value of the dollar is consumed slowly. As for the treasury market, the dynamics is currently more complex and thus make it one of the most intriguing asset classes to watch these days. So, what’s happening in the bond [...]

by James

This week we stay on the global theme, given that economic policy news flow from the US remains the dominant market driver. Fresh on the heels of dramatic action by the FOMC last week, Treasury Secretary Geithner this week announced details of his plan to bail out the financial sector. Will it work, and where [...]

by James

Last night, the FOMC announced an aggressive plan to increase its balance sheet another $1 trillion, buying long-dated treasuries and private debt with the objective of reducing borrowing costs to the private sector. This announcement comes on the back of an impressive rally, which has seen the S&P 500 rise 17% in 7 sessions. Markets [...]

by Gregory

Before the FOMC decision this evening, we look at the possible outcomes of that meeting, the consequences on the money markets and the future actions of the FED. ZIRP Policy   The probabilities of having 75 bp rate cut have been increasing lately. Yesterday, Fed fund futures pointed to a 76 percent probability at some point during [...]

by James

Global markets appear to be sustaining their rally, with US equities up some 20% from their trough as we move into the year-end period. But the uncertainties are still high. Markets are due for some kind of rally, but committing heavily means taking on substantial risk. For its part, the Russian market remains pressured, largely [...]

by Gregory

Not too long ago, the resurgence of inflation appeared as public enemy No 1. Then, as the financial crisis unfolded, oil prices above $140, stagflation became a central issue. Now, the new release of the CPI data (down from one percent from the previous month, the sharpest decline ever) is pushing the US economy into a [...]