by Jürgen

With Gazprom postponing some of its investments and old talks about a gas cartel being (briefly) back on the table, Russian energy has been quite present in the news this week. Less talked about, however, was the restatement of Russia’s intentions of putting itself back on the map of international climate discussions. Running for the green global throne brings Russia’s controversial announcement of pushing coal to a new high even more in the spotlights than it already was. Besides for its unusual nature, it is thus worth to have a quick external look on this move, its drivers and the other dimensions of an at first sight counterproductive impact.

by Jürgen

This week, voices have been raised again in Europe against the dependency on Russian gas, especially for the UK. Is this fear still justified? What are the different factors playing a role? And can Europe/the UK only wait, cry and suffer; or are concrete actions possible? An overview.

by Markus

Sunday morning thoughts. We have Asian economies leading the current stabilization of our global economy. Obviously fuelled by huge stimuli packages in total terms and also in a % of their GDP. Deployable industries and projects are smaller than liquidity provided. Asset price inflation in equities and real estate are one indication of the overambitious [...]

by Jürgen

Yesterday, Total expressed strong concerns about the political ‘green’ climate, which could lead to “oil supply crunch if they enact environmental policies that deter investment in oil and gas before enough viable alternatives are available”. A clear position that can be added to the reaction cloud aiming at lowering the bar for the Copenhagen summit in December. An understandable PR move? For sure. In accordance with reality? Not so sure, not totally. One should keep a few considerations in mind when judging the Oil industry, be it the major ‘Big Oil’ players, or other actors of the international scene. A couple of brilliant articles in the specialised press help to set a more shaded picture.

by Jürgen

What happens after 2009? Will negative rates of growth continue, or will the oil sector plateau for a handful of years before securing the basis for a return to a period of growth once again? But where will the new supplies of oil and gas come from to support that growth? Finding and developing these new supplies will be costly and time consuming and may not be adequate to cover both export and domestic demands. (…) This new report examines all these issues and makes projections for the future.

by James

Although the first quarter was challenging for both Russian and global equities, the first half of the year has proven very constructive for commodities investment. Russian clients will certainly be aware that the outlook for commodities is key to the future of their market. In this Comment, we compare recent market movements this year with [...]

by James

Paying impressive homage to Jim O?Neill, the Goldman Sachs strategist who coined the BRIC acronym, Brazil, Russia, India and China this week convene their first summit. The event is obviously a significant positive, not least because it has proven so difficult for these nations to even sit down together, let alone agree on common interests. [...]

by James

For much of late 2008 and early 2009, market attention was on Russia’s FX reserves as the CBR spent freely to control the descent of the ruble. Thus far, my prediction that the ruble would hold its basket level of 41 is proving true, although I would concede that ultimately the jury is still out. [...]