by James

China continued its slide last week (see chart), despite attempts at reassurance from leading politicians. Investors would do well to listen to the Chinese leadership, which continues to demonstrate very direct control of economic momentum (inaccurate official numbers notwithstanding). Clearly China needs to cool the rate of asset price growth, but it is not going [...]

by James

A strong, but volatile week. Equities rose again last week and trading volumes increased, strengthening the breadth and depth of the rally. But, these were choppy times. The S&P 500 performed strongly in the first days of the week, including Wednesday, when the FOMC caught the market asleep at the switch. Thursday and Friday it [...]

by James

This is our ninth Outlook & Review of the year, and the seventh time this year that we have reported a week of falling equities. To be frank, the misery is getting infectious and it is becoming hard not to sound monotonous. Last week the S&P 500 lost 7.0%. But, let’s start the week on [...]

by James

The beginning of the year is always uncertain, and the last week splits cleanly into two parts, which well reflect investor nervousness at this time. There is a sense of optimism, as portfolios start again afresh (high-water marks notwithstanding); and the market gets absorbed with outlooks and data for the previous fourth quarter, which provide [...]

by James

As oil prices have dropped below key fiscal support levels over the last few months, the outlook for the ruble has become a national concern. The currency rose steadily for five years but reversed course in July. Since then, it has given up most of its gains. After proudly portraying the ruble’s strength as a [...]

by James

US election week proved a turbulent period for the financial markets. A strong rally going into the vote gave way quickly to a sharp period of selling. The Vix Index declined by more than 6% over the week, but spiked close to 60 on Thursday, as the S&P 500 traded in an inter-week range of [...]

by James

The near 20% bull market of recent days not withstanding, equity markets are down around the globe, reflecting a financial market shock the likes of which has rarely been seen. Economies are reeling in response, meriting further nervousness about equity market perspectives. On many ratios, equities look cheap, but the prospect of a global recession [...]

by James

There’s a danger of monotony if this Monday again starts with comments about market stress and volatility. But, how to avoid it? The Vix last week peaked at 48.4, while the S&P 500 lost 9.4%. Oil slumped 12.2% and the dollar rose 5.5%. Just what is going on? And what can we expect this week? [...]